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Monday, February 16, 2009

30 games

Right now is a perfect time to look at the remainder of the Dallas Mavericks' season.

It's post-All-Star break and 30 games are left. The Mavs are sitting pretty (relatively speaking) at 31-21. I say "sitting pretty" because no one had them 10 games over .500 and no one thought they'd be one game out of the fourth seed. In fact, I doubt many thought the Western Conference would be this close.

You've got the cream of the crop (Los Angeles), the next tier (San Antonio, Denver), the rest of the playoff teams (Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Portland and Utah) and then everyone else.

The Mavs have 31 wins. We've always assumed that 55 wins will more than likely get you into the playoffs. That benchmark means the Mavs will need to win 24 of their next 30. Very unlikely. Things, still, look good.

Sixteen of the 30 are at home where the Mavs are 17-8. Seventeen of the 30 are against teams with losing records (including five of the 14 road games).

Five important things:

The Mavs Must Beat The Bad Teams
Minnesota twice. Golden State twice. Oklahoma City twice. Memphis, Indiana, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Washington, Toronto. All should be wins. That's 12 of the 24 they really need.

The Mavs Must Conquer (or at least tame) The Road
The Mavs are 14-13 away from Dallas this year. They've got roadies against the Spurs, Cavs, Hornets (twice), Hawks, Blazers and Rockets. Included in this is a harrowing 11-game stretch where eight are on the road. In March, 10 games are on the road. They have very winnable games on the road left and the Mavs must keep themselves above .500 on the road this season.

The Mavs Must Rule February and April
Fourteen total games between the months and only four on the road. February is relatively easy (5-1?). March is hell (9-7 ... maybe?). April is tough, but not awful (6-2?). That's 20 wins assuming they beat who they need to beat. If they pull off a couple of upsets, even better. Twenty wins puts them at 51-31. That should be playoff eligible.

The Mavs Must Take Care Of Conference Foes
Nine of the remaining 30 are against teams in that middle tier (if you count Phoenix). In case of tie breakers, division and conference records are all really tight. I don't think much separates these teams (although I do think New Orleans is better than they are playing) so it's imperative the Mavs win most of these games.

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