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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Why I think the Mavs beat the Spurs

Just needed a little effort
The reason the Dallas Mavericks defeated the San Antonio Spurs in five games is because, simply, they're the better team.

More often than not, that's how it shakes down in the NBA. No matter the seeding, the better team typically triumphs. This is more important than, say, the higher-ranked teams winning. In the Western Conference Finals, we want the two best teams playing. Right now, that's the Lakers, Nuggets and Mavericks. There's an incredibly good chance that two of those three will make the west finals.

But here's why the Mavs beat the Spurs. I think.

The Spurs Didn't Make the Mavs Work on Defense
A lot was made out of inserting J.J. Barea into the line-up in order to make the woefully poor defender Tony Parker work on the defensive end as a means of whipping his ass and making him ineffective offensively. The Spurs didn't really do that only level. For Parker, the Mavs put Antoine Wright, Barea, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry on him. More than enough legs to keep up ... three of those pairs aren't considered big scoring options (Wright, Kidd, Barea) so their usage wasn't needed to make buckets.

The Spurs are a jump-shooting team of the highest order. Way more than the Mavericks. What's important here is that the Mavs really aren't a great defensive team and, individually, they have some really poor defenders. Ideally, you'd like to target these guys. The Spurs could'nt. Mike Finley, Bruce Bowen, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, Ime Udoka and Kurt Thomas are all pretty easy defensive assignments. Tim Duncan, actually, isn't that rough. He's great and all, but he's clearly not 100 percent and never played as he has in the past. The Spurs simply couldn't pressure the Mavs into anything.

The Mavs Simply Whipped the Spurs on the Boards
The Mavs pounded the Spurs on the boards in four of the five games. Twice by at least double digits and the series total was 207-188. Appropriately, the Spurs were 19th in the league in rebounding and the Mavs were fifth (for the record, the Nuggets are 15th). The Spurs missed a lot of shots and the only way they would've won is by beating the Mavs on the boards. It was a battle of muscle and grit and the Mavs won.

Free Throws
In the NBA playoffs, every possession counts. In theory. If the Mavs win by 20, than one single possession doesn't make that big of a difference, but how did the Mavs win by 20? Chances are it started with one bad possession and snowballed into a dozen others. What did the Mavs do when the Spurs made a run or hit a basket? They attacked the basket and got to the free-throw line. Try 120 times in five games (22 attempts per) versus the Spurs measly 103 attempts (20 times per). The difference between 22 attempts in a game and 20 attempts in a game is how many you make. Dallas is the best free-throw shooting team in the league and showed it. The Spurs missed 31 free throws over five games. 31! In game 4 they missed 12. That's a ton of points being left on the floor.

The Spurs' "Defense" Wilted
The Spurs -- in terms of points per game allowed -- were the second best defensive team in the NBA this year. So why did it look so easy for the Mavs on offense? The Mavs shot 50+ percent in two games. Forty-seven percent in another. The Mavs averaged 96 points a game (three over the Spurs allowed average in the regular season) and this includes game 3's 88 points that could've easily been 120 had the Mavs kept their starters in that rout. The Mavs hit a lot of shots. Open shots. Very not open shots.

Furthermore, Spurs Coach Greg Popovich didn't have answers for all the Mavs' weapons. Bowen is their "marquee defender" (he ain't what he used to be, by far) and he put him on Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Barea, Kidd and whoever. They double teamed almost every scorer the Mavs, but no matter what, they were burned by the open man.

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