statistics

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Stealing is only a crime if you get caught

Bump Wells somehow weaseled his way onto an SI cover?
One of the more pronounced themes to the 2009 Texas Rangers is its sudden ability to steal bases.

It seems like a club-record pace. But it's not. It only feels that way because A) they are third in the league in steals; and B) the Rangers have only one season since 1993 with more than 100 steals (111, 1999).

The former has to do with the general decline in stolen bases and the reliance on the home run to score runs.

The latter is pretty much the same deal. The Rangers haven't had the talent to steal bases nor have they much cared to steal bases. It's a lot safer to instead knock the pitch to kingdom come and trot around the bases.

With 118 stolen bases in 2009, so far, this Rangers squad ranks eighth in franchise history. Figuring their current pace, they'll wind up third all-time trumping 130 swipes. The list:

196 - 1978
154 - 1977

130 - 1985
140 - 1988
126 - 1972
120 - 1987
119 - 1983
118 - 2009

Trends? Notice no teams from the 1990s or 2000s. The 1980s were very good for stolen bases for the Rangers and the league. You also have to figure that the 196 stolen bases in 1978 will stand forever.

The individual single-season mark is a bit more reachable. The ranks:

1. Dave Nelson - 57
2. Bump Willis - 52
3. Otis Nixon - 50
4. Cecil Espy - 45
5. Bill Sample - 44
6. Dave Nelson - 43


As you can imagine, the career Rangers totals aren't that scary either. Just saying, Ian Kinsler could be in the top 5 by next year:

1. Bump Wills - 161
2. Toby Harrah - 153
3. Dave Nelson - 144
4. Oddibe McDowell - 129
5. Julio Franco - 98
11. Ian Kinsler - 84
16. Mike Young - 77
47. Elvis Andrus 24

One mark that the 2009 Rangers could and should break is the number of individuals with double-digit steals. The current ranks:

1. Ian Kinsler - 24
2. Elvis Andrus - 24
3. Nelson Cruz - 17

4. Julio Borbon - 9
5. Marlon Byrd - 8
6. Mike Young - 8
7. Josh Hamilton - 8
8. David Murphy - 7

I would think Borbon and Byrd are locks for at least 10. Hamilton is likely. Murph may need some help.

Only five other times in team history have they had five different players with double-digit swipes (1974, 1977, 1978, 1985, 1987).

Of course, none of this actually means anything. The Rangers along with the rest of the league stole a trillion bases in the late-1970s and 1980s and it didn't win them anything. Then the Steroid Era took root in the 1990s, eliminated the stolen base and the Ranger go to the playoffs three times.

I think there's a balance here, like anything else. Is it good to steal 200 bases a year? Maybe not. I love stolen bases. I also really like bases-clearing doubles and 3-run homers.

Look back at those Rangers playoff teams. Who did they lose to in those series? The New York Yankees. Arguably some of the best teams in baseball history. Did they still a billion bases? No. But could just about any one of those guys steal a critical base when needed? All day.

That was Joe Torre's thing. They were smart base runners. Never were they the quickest or fastest, but they could time pitchers, get good jumps and surprise a battery every once in a while. That swipe leads to a RBI single and the next thing you know you're winning 100 games a season and World Series.

Labels: ,

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home