statistics

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

C.J. Young

Making it count
The Dallas Morning News' Evan Grant make a lot of good observations. It's his job.

Via Twitter, Grant wondered if C.J. Wilson has pitched himself into the American Cy Young race.
This comes as Wilson threw 7.2 innings of two-hit baseball for a 3-0 win over the Kansas City Royals.

I think Wilson is making a strong pitch to be considered for the Cy Young.

Why He Could Win It

BAA
Wilson has the best batting average against in the American League at .205. Lefties have no shot. They're hitting .124 against him. Managers aren't even playing lefties against him anymore.

ERA
Over his past four starts (30 IP), he's allowed three runs. His ERA's dropped to 2.88, the the fourth best in the American League.

No Leader In The Clubhouse
Opposed to the National League, this hasn't been a very dominant year for American League pitching. There's about six or seven Cy Young candidates in the NL. Probably two or three in the AL. CC Sabathia is probably the leader. He has 18 wins. But his other stats (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts) aren't sterling. Strikeout-leader Jered Weaver has 11 wins and 10 losses. Felix Hernandez is 10-10 on an awful Seattle club. Real candidates, to me, are Sabathia, Tampa's David Price and C.J. (Clay Buchholz is the ERA leader at 2.21 and has 15 wins, but he has just 101 strikeouts and 55 walks).

Overall Value
Wilson has just 14 wins. But he's won seven of his last nine starts (the other two being no-decisions). The Rangers have won nine straight of his starts and are 21-6 in all of Wilson's starts. He doesn't always get the win, but he helps his team obtain the victory.

Why He Won't Win It

Control
Wilson has the most walks in the American League at 77. Because of that, his innings aren't mind blowing (171.2 ... good for 14th in the league) and his WHIP is 12th at 1.19.

My guess is Wilson will not win the Cy Young, although it'd be a shame if he weren't in the top three or four in voting. Reigning in his wildness is going to be a chore for Wilson moving on. You can pretty much pinpoint his control as the big reason he hasn't seen even more success this season, especially in June and July.

Nonetheless, I'm glad he's on our side.

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